Quantum computers may crack 2048-bit RSA keys by 2040 as NIST rolls out post-quantum standards
A survey of 32 cryptography experts conducted by the Global Risk Institute reveals a 50% likelihood that quantum computers will break 2048-bit RSA encryption within 24 hours by 2040. Security researchers warn that the primary threat is 'harvest now, decrypt later' (HNDL), where adversaries capture encrypted traffic today to decrypt once quantum machines scale. In response, the US government issued CNSSP-15 requiring national security systems to adopt CNSA 2.0 post-quantum standards starting January 2027, with complete transition targeted for 2035. NIST has finalized standard post-quantum algorithms, pushing hardware and enterprise vendors to upgrade infrastructure. Hardware manufacturers are implementing protections at the silicon layer. Intel's Xeon 6 processors integrate AES-256 memory encryption and QuickAssist acceleration offloading to maintain high throughput during quantum-safe handshakes.
Building a practical path to post-quantum cryptography